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Title: Assessment of the effect of micro-simulation error on key travel indices: evidence from the activity-based model feathers
Authors: COOLS, Mario 
KOCHAN, Bruno 
WETS, Geert 
Issue Date: 2011
Source: Proceedings DVD of the 90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.
Series/Report: 11-1558
Series/Report no.: 11-1558
Abstract: Current transportation models often do not explicitly address the degree of uncertainty in travel forecasts. Of particular interest in activity-based travel demand models is the model uncertainty that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components, i.e. micro-simulation error. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of micro-simulation error on two key travel indices, namely the average daily number of trips per person and the average daily distance traveled per person. The effect of micro-simulation error will be investigated by running the activity-based modeling framework FEATHERS 200 times using the same 10% fraction of the population. Results show that micro-simulation errors are limited especially when disaggregation is limited to two levels. Notwithstanding, results indicate that for more elaborate analyses a 10% fraction might not be sufficient. The size of micro-simulation error increases along with complexity. Moreover, more commonly used transport modes such as using the car as driver have a lower error rate. Further research should investigate the impact of the population fraction on the micro-simulation error rates. Besides, one could also investigate other aspects (e.g. the number of activities) involved in the activity-scheduling process.
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Category: C1
Type: Proceedings Paper
Validations: vabb 2014
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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