Effective and robust measures for energy efficient dwellings: probabilistic determination

Abstract

Deterministic simulations are commonly used to calculate the energy use and indoor climate of a single dwelling in the design stage. Many of the influencing parameters are however inherently uncertain. As a result, deterministic calculations are not able to reliably predict the impact of design measures. In order to improve this determination, this paper suggest a robust design method based on a probabilistic approach. Major advantage is that by uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the heat demand and indoor temperatures the most effective and robust energy efficiency measures can be determined. Two very different dwellings are analysed, which exemplifies the possibilities of such a robustness approach.