Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/17005
Title: Assessing the road safety impacts of a teleworking policy by means of geographically weighted regression method
Authors: PIRDAVANI, Ali 
BELLEMANS, Tom 
BRIJS, Tom 
KOCHAN, Bruno 
WETS, Geert 
Issue Date: 2014
Source: Journal of Transport Geography, 39, p. 96-110
Abstract: Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the effectiveness of transportation systems by changing travel behavior. The primary objective of such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to simulate the traffic safety impact of conducting a teleworking scenario (i.e. 5% of the working population engages in teleworking) in the study area, Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at a geographically aggregated level, crash prediction models should also be developed at an aggregate level. Given that crash occurrences are often spatially heterogeneous and are affected by many spatial variables, the existence of spatial correlation in the data is also examined. The results indicate the necessity of accounting for the spatial correlation when developing crash prediction models. Therefore, zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) within the geographically weighted generalized linear modeling framework are developed to incorporate the spatial variations in association between the number of crashes (including fatal, severe and slight injury crashes recorded between 2004 and 2007) and other explanatory variables. Different exposure, network and socio-demographic variables of 2200 traffic analysis zones (TAZs) are considered as predictors of crashes. An activity-based transportation model framework is adopted to produce detailed exposure metrics. This enables to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models. In this study, several ZCPMs with different severity levels and crash types are developed to predict crash counts for both the null and the teleworking scenario. The results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the teleworking scenario due to its impact on the reduction of total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) by 3.15%. Implementing the teleworking scenario is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 1.43 billion and the total number of crashes to decline by 2.6%.
Notes: Pirdavani, A (reprint author), Hasselt Univ, Transportat Res Inst IMOB, Wetenschapspk 5 Bus 6, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. ali.pirdavani@uhasselt.be; tom.bellemans@uhasselt.be; tom.brijs@uhasselt.be; bruno.kochan@uhasselt.be; geert.wets@uhasselt.be
Keywords: activity-based transportation models; crash prediction models; geographically weighted regression models; spatial auto-correlation; teleworking policy; travel demand management evaluation
Document URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/17005
ISSN: 0966-6923
e-ISSN: 1873-1236
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.06.021
ISI #: 000343627900009
Rights: © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validations: ecoom 2015
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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