The estimation of the number of lost multi-copy documents: a new type of informetrics theory

Abstract

A probabilistic model is presented to estimate the number of lost multi-copy documents, based on retrieved ones. For this we only need the number of retrieved documents of which we have one copy and the number of retrieved documents of which we have two copies. If we also have the number of retrieved documents of which we have three copies then we are also able to estimate the number of copies of the documents that ever existed (assumed that this number is fixed over all documents). Simulations prove the stability of the model. The model is applied to the estimation of the number of lost printed programmes of Jesuit theatre plays in the Provincia Flandro-Belgica before 1773. This Jesuit province was an administrative entity of the order, which was territorially slightly larger in extent than present day Flanders, the northern, Dutch-speaking part of Belgium....