Exploring the future of CCU by combining an international Delphi study with local scenario development

Abstract

In this article we identified the factors which according to international experts will have substantial ef-fects on the general future developments and commercialization of carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies. A two round online Delphi study with 15 international experts in the field of CCU enabled us to explore the main items within five impact categories, being: (1) benefits, (2) risks, (3) future devel-opments, (4) demand and (5) supply constraints. Based on the results of the Delphi study we subsequently constructed four future scenarios which represent how the CCU sector could look like in 10 years using a local scenario development workshop with 9 experts from within Flanders (Belgium) and the Netherlands. We used a deductive, explorative scenario development method, which resulted in a 2x2 scenario matrix. The results of the Delphi study, all four scenarios and their implications for existing and future industry and governmental organizations are presented. Our insights are valuable and timely for facilitating the pro-cess of scenario planning for CCU development activities. Finally, although we worked with a regionally specific case study, the same method could be implemented in other regions, using the general findings from our Delphi study as a starting point for the scenario development.