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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/27334
Title: | Resurgence risk for measles, mumps and rubella in France in 2018 and 2020 | Authors: | BERAUD, Guillaume ABRAMS, Steven Beutels, Philippe Dervaux, Benoit HENS, Niel |
Issue Date: | 2018 | Publisher: | EUR CENTRE DIS PREVENTION & CONTROL | Source: | EUROSURVEILLANCE, 23(25) (Art N° 1700796) | Abstract: | Background: Large measles and mumps outbreaks recently occurred throughout Europe and the United States. Aim: Our aim was to estimate and map the risk of resurgence for measles, mumps and rubella in France. Methods: We used a multi-cohort model combining seroprevalence information, vaccine coverage and social contact data. Results: The overall outbreak risk for France in 2018 was highest for mumps, remained significant for measles despite a recent measles outbreak and was low for rubella. Outbreak risks were heterogeneous between departments, as the effective reproduction numbers for 2018 ranged from 1.08 to 3.66. The seroprevalence, and therefore the risk of measles and rubella infection, differed significantly between mates and females. There was a lower seroprevalence, and therefore a higher risk, for males. Infants of less thane year would be seriously affected in a future outbreak of measles, mumps or rubella, but the highest overall caseload contribution would come from teenagers and young adults (10-25 years old). Conclusions: The high risk for teenagers and young adults is of concern in view of their vulnerability to more severe measles, mumps and rubella disease and complications. | Notes: | [Beraud, Guillaume] CHU Poitiers, Med Interne & Malad Infect, Poitiers, France. [Beraud, Guillaume; Dervaux, Benoit] Lille Univ, Sante Publ Epidemiol Qualite Soins EA2694, Lille, France. [Beraud, Guillaume; Abrams, Steven; Hens, Niel] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Hasselt, Belgium. [Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel] Univ Antwerp, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, CHERMID, Antwerp, Belgium. [Beutels, Philippe] Univ New South Wales, Fac Med, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia. [Dervaux, Benoit] CHU Lille, Direct Rech Sante, Lille, France. | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/27334 | ISSN: | 1025-496X | e-ISSN: | 1560-7917 | DOI: | 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.25.1700796 | ISI #: | 000436099000001 | Rights: | This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate if changes were made. This article is copyright of the authors, 2018. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2019 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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beraud 1.pdf | Published version | 2.77 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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