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Title: | Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015 | Authors: | Marziano, Valentina Poletti, Piero BERAUD, Guillaume Boelle, Pierre-Yves Merler, Stefano Colizza, Vittoria |
Issue Date: | 2018 | Publisher: | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Source: | PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 14(8) (Art N° e1006334) | Abstract: | significant increase over time in children aged 0-3 years, and a decline in older individuals. A significant increase in day-care enrolment and structures' capacity in France was also observed in the last decade. In this work we investigate the potential interplay between an increase of contacts of young children possibly caused by earlier socialization in the community and varicella transmission dynamics. To this aim, we develop an age-structured mathematical model, informed with historical demographic data and contact matrix estimates in the country, accounting for longitudinal linear increase of early childhood contacts. While the reported overall varicella incidence is well reproduced independently of mixing variations, age-specific empirical trends are better captured by accounting for an increase in contacts among pre-school children in the last decades. We found that the varicella data are consistent with a 30% increase in the number of contacts at day-care facilities, which would imply a 50% growth in the contribution of 0-3y old children to overall yearly infections in 1991-2015. Our findings suggest that an earlier exposure to pathogens due to changes in day-care contact patterns, represents a plausible explanation for the epidemiological patterns observed in France. Obtained results suggest that considering temporal changes in social factors in addition to demographic ones is critical to correctly interpret varicella transmission dynamics. | Notes: | [Marziano, Valentina; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano] Bruno Kessler Fdn, Ctr Informat Technol, Trento, Italy. [Bearaud, Guillaume] Ctr Hosp Poitiers, Med Interne & Malad Infect, Poitiers, France. [Bearaud, Guillaume] Univ Droit & Sante Lille 2, EA2694, Lille, France. [Bearaud, Guillaume] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Hasselt, Belgium. [Boelle, Pierre-Yves; Colizza, Vittoria] Sorbonne Univ, INSERM, IPLESP, Paris, France. | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/27892 | ISSN: | 1553-734X | e-ISSN: | 1553-7358 | DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006334 | ISI #: | 000443298500016 | Rights: | Copyright: © 2018 Marziano et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2019 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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marziano 1.pdf | Published version | 6.89 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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