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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/2817
Title: | Role of exposure in analysis of road accidents - A Belgian case study | Authors: | VAN DEN BOSSCHE, Filip WETS, Geert BRIJS, Tom |
Issue Date: | 2005 | Publisher: | TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NATL RESEARCH COUNCIL | Source: | TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD, 1908. p. 96-103 | Abstract: | Exposure is a key variable in traffic safety research. In the literature, it is noted as the first and primary determinant of traffic safety. In many cases, however, no valid exposure measure is available. In Belgium, monthly traffic counts for 12 years are available. This offers the opportunity to investigate the added value of exposure in models, next to legal, economic, and climatologic variables. Multiple regression with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) errors is used to quantify the impact of these factors on aggregated traffic safety. For each dependent variable, a model with and without exposure is constructed. The models show that exposure is significantly related to the number of accidents with persons killed and seriously injured and to the corresponding victims, but not to the lightly injured outcomes. Moreover, the addition or deletion of exposure does not influence the effects of the remaining variables in the model. The effects of exposure clearly depend on the type of measure used and on the time horizon considered. The framework of a regression model with ARMA errors allows for missing variables being accounted for by the error term. Even without a variable such as exposure, valid models can be constructed. | Notes: | Limburgs Univ Ctr, Transportat Res Inst, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium.Van den Bossche, F, Limburgs Univ Ctr, Transportat Res Inst, Univ Campus,Gebouw D, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/2817 | ISSN: | 0361-1981 | e-ISSN: | 2169-4052 | DOI: | 10.3141/1908-12 | ISI #: | 000234682300012 | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | ecoom 2007 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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