Survival determinants in lung transplant patients with chronic allograft dysfunction

Abstract

Background. Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) remains the leading cause of mortality after lung transplantation.Methods. In this retrospective single-center study, we aimed to identify different phenotypes of and risk factors for mortality after CLAD diagnosis using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard survival regression analysis.Results. CLAD was diagnosed in 71 of 294 patients (24.2%) at 30.9+/-22.8 months after transplantation. Pulmonary function was obstructive in 51 (71.8%) of the CLAD patients, restrictive in 20 (28.2%) patients, of whom 17 had persistent parenchymal infiltrates on pulmonary computer tomography (CAT) scan. In univariate analysis, previous development of neutrophilic reversible allograft dysfunction (NRAD, P=0.012) and a restrictive pulmonary function (P=0.0024) were associated with a worse survival, whereas there was a strong trend for early development of CLAD and persistent parenchymal infiltrates on CAT scan (P=0.067 and 0.056, respectively). In multivariate analysis, early development of CLAD (P=0.0067), previous development of NRAD (P=0.0016), and a restrictive pulmonary function pattern (P=0.0005) or persistent parenchymal infiltrates on CAT scan (P=0.0043) remained significant.Conclusion. Although most CLAD patients develop an obstructive pulmonary function, 28% develop a restrictive pulmonary function, compatible with the recently defined restrictive allograft syndrome phenotype. Early-onset CLAD, previous development of NRAD, and the development of restrictive allograft syndrome are associated with worse survival after CLAD has been diagnosed.