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Title: | Population age and household structures shape transmission dynamics of emerging infectious diseases: a longitudinal microsimulation approach | Authors: | MOGELMOSE, Signe VIJNCK, Laurens NEVEN, Frank Neels, Karel Beutels, Philippe HENS, Niel |
Issue Date: | 2023 | Publisher: | ROYAL SOC | Source: | Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 20 (209) (Art N° 20230087) | Abstract: | Host population demographics and patterns of host-to-host interactions are important drivers of heterogeneity in infectious disease transmission. To improve our understanding of how population structures and changes therein influence disease transmission dynamics at the individual and population level, we model a dynamic age- and household-structured population using longitudinal microdata drawn from Belgian census and population registers. At different points in time, we simulate the spread of a close-contact infectious disease and vary the age profiles of infectiousness and susceptibility to reflect specific infections (e.g. influenza and SARS-CoV-2) using a two-level mixing model, which distinguishes between exposure to infection in the household and exposure in the community. We find that the strong relationship between age and household structures, in combination with social mixing patterns and epidemiological parameters, shape the spread of an emerging infection. Disease transmission in the adult population in particular is to a large degree explained by differential household compositions and not just household size. Moreover, we highlight how demographic processes alter population structures in an ageing population and how these in turn affect disease transmission dynamics across population groups. | Notes: | Mogelmose, S (corresponding author), Hasselt Univ, Data Sci Inst, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Hasselt, Belgium.; Mogelmose, S (corresponding author), Univ Antwerp, Ctr Populat Family & Hlth, Antwerp, Belgium. signe.mogelmose@uhasselt.be |
Keywords: | mathematical modelling;demography;population ageing;epidemiology;disease transmission;household structures | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/41983 | ISSN: | 1742-5689 | e-ISSN: | 1742-5662 | DOI: | 10.1098/rsif.2023.0087 | ISI #: | 001113270300003 | Datasets of the publication: | https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6935461 | Rights: | 2023 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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