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Title: | Reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in a primary school using epidemiological and genomic data | Authors: | KREMER, Cécile TORNERI, Andrea LIBIN, Pieter Meex, C Hayette, MP Bontems, S Durkin, K Artesi, M Bours, V Lemey, P Darcis, G HENS, Niel Meuris, C |
Issue Date: | 2023 | Publisher: | Elsevier | Source: | Epidemics, 44 (Art N° 100701) | Abstract: | Mathematicalmodelling studies have shown that repetitive screening canbeused tomitigate SARS-CoV2 transmission inprimary schoolswhile keeping schools open. However, notmuch is knownabout how transmissionprogresseswithin schools andwhether there is a riskof importation tohouseholds. During theacademicyear2020–2021, aprospectivesurveillancestudyusingrepetitivescreeningwasconductedin aprimary school andassociatedhouseholds inLiège (Belgium). SARS-CoV-2 screeningwas performedvia throatwashingeitheronceor twiceaweek.Weusedgenomicandepidemiological data toreconstruct the observedschooloutbreaksusingtwodifferentmodels.Theoutbreaker2model combines informationonthe generationtimeandcontactpatternswithamodelofsequenceevolution.ForcomparisonwealsousedSCOTTI, aphylogeneticmodel basedon the structuredcoalescent. Inaddition,weperformeda simulationstudy to investigatehowtheaccuracyofestimatedpositivityratesinaschooldependsontheproportionofaschoolthat issampledinarepetitivescreeningstrategy.WefoundnodifferenceinSARS-CoV-2positivitybetweenchildren andadults andchildrenwerenotmoreoftenasymptomaticcompared toadults. Bothmodels foroutbreak reconstruction revealed that transmissionoccurredmainlywithin the school environment. Uncertainty in outbreakreconstructionwas lowestwhenincludinggenomicaswellasepidemiologicaldata.Wefoundthat observedweeklypositivityrates areagoodapproximation to the trueweeklypositivityrate, especially in children, evenwhenonly25%of theschool populationis sampled.Theseresults indicate that, inaddition to reducing infections as shown inmodelling studies, repetitive screening inschool settings can lead toa betterunderstandingof theextentof transmissioninschoolsduringapandemicandimportationriskat the communitylevel. | Keywords: | SARS-coV-2 transmission;Primary school;Outbreak reconstruction;Whole genome sequences;Screening protocol | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/42220 | ISSN: | 1755-4365 | e-ISSN: | 1878-0067 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100701 | ISI #: | WOS:001053794500001 | Rights: | 2023TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierB.V.ThisisanopenaccessarticleundertheCCBYlicense(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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