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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/43191
Title: | The Probability of Improved Prediction: a new concept in statistical inference | Authors: | THAS, Olivier JASPERS, Stijn |
Issue Date: | 2024 | Source: | Abstract: | In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is a probabilistic measure for comparing two competing models. Three versions of the PIP and several estimators are introduced and the relationships between them, p-values and the mean squared error are investigated. The performance of the estimators is assessed in a simulation study. An application shows how the PIP can support p-values to strengthen the conclusions or possibly point at issues with e.g. replicability. | Keywords: | Cross-validation;Hypothesis testing;Model comparison;Prediction modelling;Sample splitting | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/43191 | Rights: | CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 | Category: | A2 | Type: | Preprint |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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2405.17064v1.pdf | 4.23 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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