Exploring Factors Influencing Speeding on Rural Roads: A Multivariable Approach

Abstract

Speeding is one of the main contributing factors to road crashes and their severity; therefore, this study aims to investigate the complex dynamics of speeding and uses a multivariable analysis framework to explore the diverse factors contributing to exceeding vehicle speeds on rural roads. The analysis encompasses diverse measured variables from Croatia's secondary road network, including time of day and supplementary data such as average summer daily traffic, roadside characteristics, and settlement location. Measuring locations had varying speed limits ranging from 50 km/h to 90 km/h, with traffic volumes from very low to very high. In this study, modeling of influencing factors on speeding was carried out using conventional and more advanced methods with speeding as a binary dependent variable. Although all models showed accuracy above 74%, their sensitivity (predicting positive cases) was greater than specificity (predicting negative cases). The most significant factors across the models included the speed limit, distance to the nearest intersection, roadway width, and traffic load. The findings highlight the relationship between the variables and speeding cases, providing valuable insights for policymakers and law enforcement in developing measures to improve road safety by determining locations where speeding is expected and planning further measures to reduce the frequency of speeding vehicles.