Upscaling in ex-ante sustainability assessments of emerging chemical technologies: a scoping review

Abstract

The chemical industry is transitioning towards sustainability. Early-stage emerging technologies (technology readiness levels 1-4) play a critical role in enabling this transition. These technologies can either resemble mature unit-operation-based incumbents (traditional designs) or adopt innovative multi-functional (non-traditional) designs. While promising, their immature nature entails high investment risks. Ex-ante sustainability assessments (ex-ante SAs) help mitigate these risks by evaluating how early design decisions influence industrialscale sustainability impacts. A crucial challenge in ex-ante SA is upscaling, the process of modelling an industrialscale version of an emerging technology based on lab-scale insights. Despite its importance, existing literature lacks a systematic classification of methodological approaches for upscaling, making it difficult to select appropriate approaches based on a technology's design features. We address this gap by conducting a scoping literature review on emerging bio-based, electrochemical, and chemical CO2 management process technologies. Based on our findings, we propose a classification scheme that categorizes upscaling methodologies according to key technology features, specifically degree of intensification, extent of modularization, and designinfrastructure compatibility. These technology features are also mapped against innovative elements of the technology induced by the use of novel feedstock, or functional/auxiliary materials or equipment designs to produce (novel) end-products. This study provides practical recommendations for selecting appropriate modelling approaches for both traditional and non-traditional technology designs in ex-ante SAs. By bridging this methodological gap, our study enhances the robustness and applicability of ex-ante SA in guiding sustainable technology development.