Urban Heat on Hold: A Remote Sensing-Based Assessment of COVID-19 Lockdown Effects on Land Surface Temperature and SUHI in Nowshera, Pakistan

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic presented an unprecedented opportunity to assess the environmental effects of reduced anthropogenic activity on urban climates. This study investigates the impact of COVID-19-induced lockdowns on land surface temperature (LST) and the intensity of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) in Nowshera District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan, which is experiencing rapid urbanization. Using Landsat 8/9 imagery, we assessed thermal changes across three periods: pre-lockdown (April 2019), during lockdown (April 2020), and post-lockdown (April 2021). Remote sensing indices, including NDVI and NDBI, were applied to evaluate the relationship between land cover and LST. Our results show a significant reduction in average LST during lockdown, from 31.38 degrees C in 2019 to 25.34 degrees C in 2020, a 6 degrees C decrease. Urban-rural LST differences narrowed from 9 degrees C to 6 degrees C. A one-way ANOVA confirmed significant differences in LST across the three periods (F (2, 3) = 3691.46, p < 0.001), with Tukey HSD tests indicating that the lockdown period differed significantly from both the pre- and post-lockdown periods (p < 0.001). SUHI intensity fell from 35.10 degrees C to 28.89 degrees C during lockdown, then rebounded to 35.37 degrees C post-lockdown. The indices analysis shows that built-up and rangeland areas consistently recorded the highest LST (e.g., 35.36 degrees C and 37.09 degrees C in 2021, respectively), while vegetation and water bodies maintained lower temperatures (34.68 degrees C and 32.69 degrees C in 2021). NDVI confirmed the cooling effect of green areas, while high NDBI values correlated with increased LST in urban areas. These findings underscore the impact of human activity on urban heat dynamics and highlight the role of sustainable urban planning and green infrastructure in enhancing climate resilience. By exploring the relationships among land cover, anthropogenic activity, and urban climate resilience, this research offers policymakers and urban planners' valuable insights for developing adaptive, low-emission cities amid rapid urbanization and climate change.