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Title: Evaluating the Road Safety Effects of a Fuel Cost Increase Measure by means of Zonal Crash Prediction Modeling
Authors: PIRDAVANI, Ali 
KOCHAN, Bruno 
WETS, Geert 
Issue Date: 2013
Abstract: Travel Demand Management(TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the transportation system's effectiveness by changing travel behavior. The primary objective to implement such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the traffic safety impact of conducting a fuel-cost increase scenario (i.e increasing the fuel price by 20%) in Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at an aggregate level, crash prediction models (CPMs) should also be developed at a geographically aggregated level. Therefore zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) are considered to present the association between observed crashes in each zone and a set of predictor variables. To this end, an activity-based transportation model framework is applied to produce exposure metrics which will be used in prediction models. This allows us to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models unlike traditional models in which the impact of TDM strategies are assumed. The crash data used in this study consist of fatal and injury crashes observed between 2004 and 2007. The network and socio-demographic variables are also collected from other sources. In this study, different ZCPMs are developed to predict the number of injury crashes (NOCs)(disaggregated by different severity levels and crash types) for both the null and the fuel-cost increase scenario. the results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the fuel-cost increase scenario apart from its impact on the reduction of the total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). A 20% increase in fuel price is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 5.02 billion(11.57% of the total annual VKT in Flanders), which causes the total NOCs to decline by 2.83%.
Keywords: crash prediction models; traffic analysis zones; transportation planning; travel demand management; safety planning; fuel-cost increase scenario; activity-based models
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Link to publication: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.04.008
ISSN: 0001-4575
e-ISSN: 1879-2057
ISI #: 000314191600023
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validations: ecoom 2014
Appears in Collections:Research publications

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