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http://hdl.handle.net/1942/39343
Title: | Estimating COVID-19-Related Excess Mortality Excluding Seasonal Phenomena in Belgium | Authors: | VERBEECK, Johan FAJGENBLAT, Maxime WILLEM, Lander NEYENS, Thomas FAES, Christel HENS, Niel Deboosere, Patrick VERBEKE, Geert MOLENBERGHS, Geert |
Issue Date: | 2022 | Source: | ARCHIVES OF MEDICAL RESEARCH, 10 (9) | Abstract: | Excess mortality, rather than reported COVID-19 deaths has been suggested to evaluate the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 induced Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic on mortality. However, the relationship between excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality is perturbed by seasonal phenomena, such as extreme temperatures and seasonal influenza. Models used to estimate excess mortality often ignore these underlying patterns. We propose a dynamic linear state-space model to estimate all-cause mortality, which accounts for extreme temperatures above 25°C and seasonal influenza via the Goldstein index. The state-space model prediction of the excess mortality that is not explained by heat waves and seasonal influenza coincides with the reported COVID-19 mortality in the year 2020 in Belgium. | Keywords: | all-cause mortality;COVID-19;excess mortality;heat wave;seasonal influenza;state-space model | Document URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1942/39343 | ISSN: | 0188-4409 | e-ISSN: | 1873-5487 | DOI: | . https://doi.org/10.18103/mra. v10i9.3077 | Rights: | 2022 European Society of Medicine. This is an open- access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. | Category: | A1 | Type: | Journal Contribution | Validations: | vabb 2024 |
Appears in Collections: | Research publications |
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